Sunday, 13 May 2012

EUR/USD's Look Out For the Coming Week

The EUR/USD pair had a miserable week. The gap from the weekend was brutal, and the fact that it also acted as resistance as well doesn’t bode well for the future of this market. The 1.30 level is now a thing of the past, and the bearish momentum is starting to build from here.
The Greek elections have seen a lack of a consensus, and the political landscape in that country is very murky to say the least. The election was essentially an anti-austerity vote, and the people are obviously getting tired of the situation. The ability to elect those that will move against the austerity programs will certainly put the whole situation in jeopardy. The markets seemed to be surprised by the fact that the Greek people have stood up against what they perceive as a set of punishments imposed by Berlin.
The Greeks have essentially put the rest of Europe on notice that they are not willing to put up with it anymore. With an unemployment rate of roughly 25%, there is no future for this country under the current plans, just more pain. There is no way this can continue for very long, and this really shouldn’t be a surprise.
The breaking of the 1.30 level is a big deal, as the area has been the site of obvious manipulation over the last couple of months. There are a lot of rumors that Asian central banks are buying at that level, and most people suspect it is the People’s Bank of China that is behind it. This makes sense as the Chinese have bought so many Euros over the last couple of years to diversify away from the US dollar.
However, the PBOC has recently stated that they are no longer buying sovereign debt in the European Union, and if this is true – there would be a massive whole in the demand for these bonds. This will force the ECB to ease massively, or face an implosion. We are selling a break of the shooting star that formed for the week to the downside. Buying isn’t a thought at this moment as we see 1.26 as the next stop in this pair.
This Week is shaping up to be another very low for the Euro.
Look To Go Short-If News Out of Greece still looks as bad as it does Today.

No comments:

Post a Comment