The EUR/USD pair
had a miserable week. The gap from the weekend was brutal, and the fact
that it also acted as resistance as well doesn’t bode well for the
future of this market. The 1.30 level is now a thing of the past, and
the bearish momentum is starting to build from here.
The Greek elections have seen a lack of a consensus, and the
political landscape in that country is very murky to say the least. The
election was essentially an anti-austerity vote, and the people are
obviously getting tired of the situation. The ability to elect those
that will move against the austerity programs will certainly put the
whole situation in jeopardy. The markets seemed to be surprised by the
fact that the Greek people have stood up against what they perceive as a
set of punishments imposed by Berlin.
The Greeks have essentially put the rest of Europe on notice that
they are not willing to put up with it anymore. With an unemployment
rate of roughly 25%, there is no future for this country under the
current plans, just more pain. There is no way this can continue for
very long, and this really shouldn’t be a surprise.
The breaking of the 1.30 level is a big deal, as the area has been
the site of obvious manipulation over the last couple of months. There
are a lot of rumors that Asian central banks are buying at that level,
and most people suspect it is the People’s Bank of China that is behind
it. This makes sense as the Chinese have bought so many Euros over the
last couple of years to diversify away from the US dollar.
However, the PBOC has recently stated that they are no longer buying
sovereign debt in the European Union, and if this is true – there would
be a massive whole in the demand for these bonds. This will force the
ECB to ease massively, or face an implosion. We are selling a break of
the shooting star that formed for the week to the downside. Buying isn’t
a thought at this moment as we see 1.26 as the next stop in this pair.
This Week is shaping up to be another very low for the Euro.
Look To Go Short-If News Out of Greece still looks as bad as it does Today.
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