FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The three banks have released their trade
recommendations for the day. The Copenhagen based bank, Danske Bank,
suggests in its daily technical report to “short at 1.2490 for a 1.2386
objective, stop 1.2544", while Commerzbank recommends to “stand aside
for a while.” UBS' Chris Walker, believes the cross will be at 1.20 in
the next 3 months and at 1.15 in the next twelve months.
Gross
domestic product in the EMU had QoQ and YoY growth at 0.0% and -0.1%,
respectively. Industrial production in the eurozone’s biggest economy,
Germany, came below expectations at -2.2% (MoM). On the other hand,
mortgage applications in the US grew by 1.3% in the week ending June
1st.
The pair is currently trading at 1.2470, gaining 0.14%.
Wednesday 6 June 2012
Forex - EUR/USD erases gains after Draghi comments
Forex Focus - The euro erased gains against the U.S. dollar on
Wednesday, pulling away from a session high as European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi delivered opening remarks on the central bank’s
earlier policy meeting.
EUR/USD pulled away from 1.2527, the daily high, to hit 1.2452 during European afternoon trade, easing 0.02%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2385, the low of June 4 and resistance at 1.2541, Tuesday’s high.
The euro came under pressure after ECB President Draghi said that the economic outlook faces downside risks, adding that indicators for the second quarter point to weakening growth in the euro zone.
Draghi also said that main refinancing operations will continue to be conducted for as long as necessary, extending the operations until the end of the January 15, 2013.
The comments came after the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 1%, in a widely expected move.
Investors had remained cautious after Spain warned on Tuesday that it was having difficulty accessing credit markets, while uncertainty over the outcome of Greek elections on June 17 also weighed.
Earlier in the day, revised data showed that the euro zone economy was stagnant in the first quarter, in line with preliminary estimates, but gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 0.1% in the three months to March, compared to a preliminary flat reading.
A separate report showed that German industrial production dropped 2.2% in April, compared to expectations for a more modest 1.0% decline, fuelling concerns over the impact of the ongoing sovereign debt crisis on the region’s largest economy.
Elsewhere, the euro was lower against the pound with EUR/GBP declining 0.51%, to hit 0.8052.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release revised data on nonfarm productivity, followed by government data on crude oil stockpiles, while the Federal Reserve was to release its Beige Book.
EUR/USD pulled away from 1.2527, the daily high, to hit 1.2452 during European afternoon trade, easing 0.02%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2385, the low of June 4 and resistance at 1.2541, Tuesday’s high.
The euro came under pressure after ECB President Draghi said that the economic outlook faces downside risks, adding that indicators for the second quarter point to weakening growth in the euro zone.
Draghi also said that main refinancing operations will continue to be conducted for as long as necessary, extending the operations until the end of the January 15, 2013.
The comments came after the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 1%, in a widely expected move.
Investors had remained cautious after Spain warned on Tuesday that it was having difficulty accessing credit markets, while uncertainty over the outcome of Greek elections on June 17 also weighed.
Earlier in the day, revised data showed that the euro zone economy was stagnant in the first quarter, in line with preliminary estimates, but gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 0.1% in the three months to March, compared to a preliminary flat reading.
A separate report showed that German industrial production dropped 2.2% in April, compared to expectations for a more modest 1.0% decline, fuelling concerns over the impact of the ongoing sovereign debt crisis on the region’s largest economy.
Elsewhere, the euro was lower against the pound with EUR/GBP declining 0.51%, to hit 0.8052.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release revised data on nonfarm productivity, followed by government data on crude oil stockpiles, while the Federal Reserve was to release its Beige Book.
Sunday 3 June 2012
EUR/USD Forecast June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
Category:
The 1.25 level is above, and as a result there is a resistance level in the area. The level should end up being strong, and because of this we are looking for failures in this area on rallies. The market is far ahead of itself on the idea of easing, and a repudiation of this by Bernanke during Congressional testimony the coming week will slam this pair if it happens.
With all of the headline risks that we see in Europe at the moment, it is very difficult to buy the Euro in general. It is because of this that if we choose to short the Dollar, it won’t be in this pair. The European Union has several years of pain ahead of it, and to think that this suddenly changed is naïve at best.
The breaking of the 1.25 level would indeed be interesting, but there are also resistive areas at 1.26, 1.27, and most certainly at the 1.30 level. The four areas just mentioned all look like candidates for shorting if we get the weak candle that we need to see in those areas. The pair still will be subject to sudden headlines that will affect prices, and we think most of those headlines are going to be Euro negative. The Greek elections on June 17 will continue to be a weight on the pair. The buying of this pair just isn’t possible in this environment until we get more clarity as this market is so distressed.
So The Outlook For the EUR/USD is still in dout-look to SHORT The High's Until we see some real Buying power back.
Technical Reports
The EUR/USD pair got a bit of a boost during the session on the bad jobs numbers out of America. This seems to be predicated on the idea that the Federal Reserve could forced to step in and ease further. However, the idea is more than likely a bit premature, and there is also a really large chance that the European Central Bank will have to ease first. Also, there is a much more structural risk in Europe at this moment, so this knee-jerk reaction on Friday will more than likely be just that: a knee-jerk reaction.The 1.25 level is above, and as a result there is a resistance level in the area. The level should end up being strong, and because of this we are looking for failures in this area on rallies. The market is far ahead of itself on the idea of easing, and a repudiation of this by Bernanke during Congressional testimony the coming week will slam this pair if it happens.
With all of the headline risks that we see in Europe at the moment, it is very difficult to buy the Euro in general. It is because of this that if we choose to short the Dollar, it won’t be in this pair. The European Union has several years of pain ahead of it, and to think that this suddenly changed is naïve at best.
The breaking of the 1.25 level would indeed be interesting, but there are also resistive areas at 1.26, 1.27, and most certainly at the 1.30 level. The four areas just mentioned all look like candidates for shorting if we get the weak candle that we need to see in those areas. The pair still will be subject to sudden headlines that will affect prices, and we think most of those headlines are going to be Euro negative. The Greek elections on June 17 will continue to be a weight on the pair. The buying of this pair just isn’t possible in this environment until we get more clarity as this market is so distressed.
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